Thursday, September 2, 2010

Why the Spike in M&A Activity?

Why are we seeing a spike in Merger & Acquisition activity, and what does it mean for the underlying economy?

Successful mature companies, especially larger companies, by definition, create large amounts of cash on their balance sheets. While a startup company struggles to fund their growth, a larger more mature company comes to a point where the cash problem flips from “how to get enough,” to “what to do with all this cash?”

If you are the CEO of a successful mature corporation, your most critical job is deciding what to do with the cash thrown off by a large profitable business. You don’t want to accumulate too much, because piles of liquid assets make your company a tempting “hostile takeover target.” Predatory suitors become tempted to buy you out, split up the pieces, and take the cash. Corporations are not intended to be “piggy banks” for the storage of cash, but investments that put cash to work for gain. If the CEO cannot figure out how to put cash to work for reasonable gain, someone will take it away who can.

There are generally only three, or maybe four things that a CEO will choose to do with this accumulating pile of cash:

1) Invest in the organic growth of the company: This is arguably the best use of cash. It is the reason companies initially sell stock and take on debt. The trouble is, as a company grows, it becomes increasingly challenging to manage all of the sprawling activities of a large company; which is to say that many attempts to select growth strategies result in wasted capital with insufficient return. It is mathematically easier to achieve a large rate of growth when a company is small, but becomes more difficult as the company becomes larger; creating a project that will add $10k to your balance sheet to grow from $100k into $110k is fundamentally a simpler task than creating a project that will return $100M to grow from $1B to $1.1B. The latter project is simply larger, with more moving parts, and thus more challenging to manage efficiently. CEOs are measured by their boards, industry analysts, and shareholders for their ability to create return on invested capital. It is not career enhancing to invest large amounts of capital in organic growth only to achieve little or no return. It takes real guts as the CEO of a large mature company to stick your neck out and invest large amounts of capital in an ambitious growth project. The larger the company, the riskier it is perceived to be to invest in organic growth.

2) Buy back stock: This is one of the most popular uses of cash. It is generally deemed “prudent” or at least “innocuous” by boards and market analysts, and therefore perceived as a “safe” move by a CEO. It has the effect, at least in the short term, of putting small upward pressure on the price of the stock, due to an improvement in the earnings per share of the stock. But EPS is not the only way stocks are valued, so in the end the upward pressure tends to evaporate with time, and the underlying market perception of the stock value due to PE ratio and other factors, takes hold. Buying back stock has become the CEOs way to “burn money” without attracting criticism. The announcement of stock buy-backs with accompanying positive “PR spin” has become a carefully finessed art. The problem with it becomes clearer when we remember why we sold stock in the first place: To fund the growth of the company. Buying your own stock back is akin to saying to the market: “You know that money we raised by selling shares in our company to you? Well, we’ve decided we cannot figure out any way to invest that money in the growth of our company that will return any better return than buying the ‘market,’ so we’ve decided to renege on that deal.” In short, it expresses a lack of confidence in the company, by the company’s own Board and CEO. This ought to be a signal to the market that perhaps this company has reached an inflection point in its growth which very likely portends flat or declining valuation in the long run. By admission and by definition, the company has become too large to be profitably managed, at least by the present executive management.

3) Invest in Mergers and Acquisitions: This is an extremely seductive use of cash for a large company. When a CEO is at the helm of a large company, it is a bit like being at the helm of an ocean-going super-tanker. The scale of things makes it difficult to see where you’re going. When one considers a strategic growth initiative, CEOs often have the experience that their internal divisions rarely achieve very satisfactory returns on investment for major strategic projects. This is largely a result of bureaucratic inefficiencies, internal group-think, and institutional aversion to even moderate risk-taking, all of which stifles true innovation. On the other hand, the executive staff may bring to the CEO an opportunity to invest in a smaller company who, partly by virtue of their earlier stage of growth, is achieving remarkable growth rates. The temptation is to believe that the larger company can fold that impressive rate of growth into its operations without destroying the success of the smaller piece. Such is rarely the case. The most common result is that in fairly short order the new acquisition begins to yield returns on investment more like the parent and less like the pre-acquisition smaller company. Bureaucracy and risk-aversion are aggressive contagions. Large companies tend to do what worked for them before with small tweaks, while smaller companies find it much easier to do what no one has done before. The vast majority of dramatic innovation comes from smaller companies, and a very few large companies who’ve learned the knack of managing innovation outside the shadow of their big-company bureaucracy. In most cases, the best outcome from an M&A is the reward to an experienced entrepreneur whose resulting exit-strategy may fund the growth of a new startup that will in turn create new market innovation.

4) Pay Shareholder Dividends: Some would argue that this is the proper use of all excess cash when a company has reached a size beyond which profitable growth becomes too difficult. It is understandably difficult for the leadership of a company to accept that the very size of their company has become an obstacle to further growth. Executives may not want to set ongoing market expectations of future dividends, and so prefer the other options in the short term while hoping that further growth will yet become possible. Dividends are generally associated with mature markets; while companies tend to want to see themselves as youthful and thriving.
In our present national economic climate, private-sector companies are piling up historic levels of cash. This has been largely a result of cost cutting reductions in labor, and fear of committing capital in the face of unprecedented market uncertainty. The already difficult risk an executive takes on when capital is committed, becomes untenable in the face of manic government interference through intractable regulation, and hyper-active, and even irresponsible fiscal and monetary policies.

That we see a spike in M&A activity at some point is absolutely predictable. While equity markets love the “action,” it can hardly be viewed as a sign of returning vigor to the underlying economy. If the market uncertainty remains at these unprecedented levels, the cash, while in a new “piggy bank,” is unlikely see much greater circulation in the broader economy. We’re just seeing consolidation of entrepreneurial companies into larger, and generally less efficient packages, while the well-compensated entrepreneur retires to the sideline to wait for a healthier climate before reentering the fray.

Monday, August 30, 2010

Do you quote the Bible without knowing it?

When I first read the complete Bible as an adult, it was as a non-believer. I had become aware of the tremendous literary legacy we owe to the Bible, and was a bit embarrassed to realize I had never read it fully. Considering myself relatively "well read" in many of the classics, I was a bit embarrassed to admit that I had never read the complete Bible. I thus read it initially as literature, though I must confess it did not take long for it to become more to me. I began at Matthew and read the complete New Testament first, and then began at Genesis and read the entire Old Testament. It took me about nine months, a few minutes at a time each morning at breakfast.

How many of these allusions to the Bible do you use without knowing their source?

“Apple of my eye” – Deuteronomy 32:10

“At wits’ end” – Psalm 107:27

“Blind leading the blind” – Matthew 15:14

“Can a leopard change its spots?” – Jeremiah 13:23

“Drop in a bucket” – Isaiah 40:15

“Eat and drink for tomorrow we die” – Isaiah 22:12-13

“Fat of the land” – Genesis 45:18

“Fight the good fight” – 1 Timothy 6:12

“Fly in the ointment” – Ecclesiastes 10:1

“Give up the ghost” – Acts 12:23

“How the mighty have fallen” – 2 Samuel 1:19

“Many are called but few are chosen” – Matthew 22:13-14

“No rest for the wicked” – Isaiah 57:20

“Physician, heal thyself” – Luke 4:23

“Rise and shine” – Isaiah 60:1

“Skin of my teeth” – Job 19:20

“Sour grapes” – Ezekiel 18:2

“Woe is me” – Job 10:15

“Writing on the wall” – Daniel 5:4-6

Thursday, August 19, 2010

The "Ground-Zero" Rorschach

The “Ground-Zero” mosque controversy has served as a Rorschach test for how one views our enemy in the “war on terror,” and perhaps for how we view ourselves.


If the enemy is viewed as a loose collection of un-enlightened violent criminals, completely ignoring that group’s own descriptions of themselves, then any opposition to the Ground-Zero mosque is viewed as an equally un-enlightened racial prejudice.

If the enemy is viewed as an organized military and geo-political movement with only a loose and mostly illegitimate connection to Islam, then one may struggle with a difficult-to-justify discomfort over the mosque, invoking terms such as “sacred secular site” and suggest that even a Christian Church next to the site would be equally inappropriate.

But if the enemy in our war on terror is a militant theocratic geo-political wing of Islam, a “denomination” of Islam which has become associated with stoning and mutilation of women, honor killings, martyrdom, and severe dress-codes imposed by violent penalty, which seeks to reclaim Islam’s past glory through a fight to the death struggle against “the little satan” Israel, “the great satan” America, and all the institutions of liberty associated with Western civilization, then America is faced with an entirely new kind of enemy, and the Ground-Zero mosque raises entirely new questions which have yet to be asked or answered.

Preeminent among our American constitutional liberties are the first amendment guarantees: The prohibition against government infringement upon freedom of speech, freedom of religious expression, and a prohibition of government establishment of religion. In the almost two and a quarter centuries since our Constitution was written, the “establishment” clause has come to be expansively interpreted in ways that the signers of the Constitution would certainly not recognize as bearing any resemblance to their intent. The founders clearly did not want to see the creation of an American religious institution like they had left behind in Europe, wishing no establishment of a “Church of America” as had been established in England, nor “American Vatican.” But the language of their amendment has been interpreted through a succession of court decisions to something which approaches the removal of all things religious from every public space; the removal of the Ten Commandments, crosses, and prayers from parks, courtrooms, classrooms, and every other public space. Those endorsing this evolving understanding of the establishment clause will not be happy until the crosses are removed from Arlington National Cemetery.

This re-construction of our First Amendment has left our government institutions impotent to make any public assertions whatever regarding religion. Any serious student of history knows that our founders had no such disability. Our founders had the intellectual courage and sophistication to strenuously respect and defend the religious liberty of others while at the same time acknowledging God’s hand in our nation’s journey and professing their individual faith from every public podium. They exercised their right as individuals to pray and study the Christian Bible in our Capital, in our courtrooms, and insisted that the same individual rights were necessary in our classrooms. American citizens of the 18th century understood that their secular institutions, and indeed the very Western civilization notion of individual liberty itself, had grown out of Judeo/Christian religious institutions melded with influences from secular Western philosophers all the way back to the Greeks.

If our founders had been faced with some militant theocratic geo-political religion that was existentially opposed to Western civilization and democratic liberty, who was associated with the mutilation of women, and who sought to gain glory through a death struggle against America, whom they called “the great satan,” do we really believe these founding fathers would have felt their hands were Constitutionally-bound from naming this religion as the enemy of our nation? Would they have believed that the establishment clause, written to prevent government from establishing a religious denomination, could be twisted to mean they could not oppose a religious denomination who was existentially committed to their destruction and the destruction of that same Constitution?

Our founders were too committed to reason, and what has come to be called American Exceptionalism, to allow any such national suicidal martyrdom.

What is happening within Islam today is very like what happened long ago within the Christian Church, with different factions each considering themselves the “true” religion, and denouncing all other claimants to be “no-religion-at-all.” Christianity eventually reached peaceful accommodation with numerous denominations along a variety of doctrinal divisions; some considering themselves very close “brothers and sisters in Christ,” others viewed as distant cousins, and a few rejected as apostate non-Christians, but with each peacefully and emphatically respecting the rights of the other. Islam has some recognized denominational division, such as between Sunni and Shia, sometimes peacefully, but no other religion in the modern age has been invoked by so many committed to such extremely violent struggle. Suicide bombings, justification of the killing of non-combatants, be-heading prisoners, calls for the complete annihilation of entire religious and ethnic groups; this is the posture of a large sub-segment of those who lay claim to be “the true Islam.” Muted claims by others within Islam, that theirs is a religion of peace, cannot erase the fact that many study the same book of teachings, invoke the same figures as holy, and yet arrive at some entirely opposite doctrinal imperatives.

Who decides which group can call itself Islam? The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints, and Christian Scientists each invoke the name of Christ, but most Baptists or evangelicals would not consider those groups Christian, yet neither side takes prisoners or beheads anyone. The fact is that in every other case, we accept the label that a group chooses for itself even when we disagree with that group’s beliefs. We all need to come to grips with the simple fact that our enemy in the “war on terror” is a group that considers itself the only “true” Islam, that they view their struggle as an existential struggle for the glory and honor of their religion, in short that they are in a “religious war.” The West rightly shrinks from the notion of religious wars. The West has fought some terrible religious wars; not more terrible than the wars with atheists, but terrible enough. Like it or not, the West, once again finds itself, by no choice of its own, at war with a religion. To be sure, the enemy is not everyone who calls themselves Islamic, but we can be forgiven if we struggle to draw out these distinctions, when those within Islam itself have failed to come to grips with these differences.

There is a critical distinction between being “at war with a religion” versus being in a “religious war.” A religious war is a war between two religions, each motivated by their own religious doctrinal imperatives. In the war on terror, our enemy claims to be motivated by their religious beliefs (and who are we to dispute such a claim), but we are clearly motivated by a desire for peaceful accommodation through law and some reasonable facsimile of order which respects the rights of individuals. To repeat: We are not in a religious war, but we clearly are at war with a self-proclaimed religion.

Making matters more difficult is that this enemy does not see itself first as being members of a national group, but as an international religious group which would lay claim to the entire globe, by force if necessary. Infiltration into every continent and every nation, creating tentacles of violent struggle everywhere is a primary tactic of this enemy. We are not met on a battlefield with clearly demarked enemy lines. By design, this enemy hides behind non-combatants, daring us to attack, in order to use a naïve or complicit international press to attack our honor. We strive for super-human restraint to combat this evil, such as the world has never seen. This enemy historically celebrates their victories by building mosques in the place of former holy sites of their conquered enemies. The imam leading the group to build this mosque has at least equivocated when called upon to take sides against those who represent the violent denomination of Islam. Dissembling and subterfuge have been tactics employed by this enemy. They believe they have no moral imperative to honesty except to other fellow believers. David Horowitz has correctly pointed out that one way to distinguish which “Islam” you are dealing with is to ask their member to denounce Hamas and Hezbollah publicly as evil terrorists. Fellow believers whose sympathies are aligned with these violent extremists find it very difficult to make clear very public denunciations of their allies.

These are the inescapable facts of the so-called “ground-zero” mosque. As a point of precise distinction, the building in question, the former Burlington Coat factory, is not simply “close” to the site of the attack, but large parts of the aircraft-turned-missile on 9/11 crashed into this very building, doing a good deal of damage; it was within the immediate incident perimeter of the original 9/11 attack.

Even if we could be convinced that the group who seeks to build this mosque had no association whatever with the Islamists who perpetrated the attack on 9/11, construction of this mosque would be celebrated by those Islamist terrorists as yet a further twisting of the knife in America’s side that was 9/11. The very desire by any member of Islam to build a mosque in this location, knowing full well how it would be viewed by our enemy, is tantamount to an admission that they are not on our side in this struggle, but their true heartfelt sympathies lie with the terrorists. Even if they had no part in this attack on America, they are happy to “twist the knife.” Constructing this mosque in this site would be like some secret handshake, known only to fellow believers, which would celebrate this “victorious battlefield” in the war for global domination by Islam.

Setting aside our courtroom-crafted contemporary Constitutional precedents for the moment, any nation whose founding document precludes it from resisting the encroachment of an infiltrating enemy, or even of naming that enemy, is doomed. America cannot be allowed to be so doomed, we must honor the heritage handed to us by our founders, and correct if necessary the error that has crept into our own understanding of our founding documents, if indeed such creepage has brought us to a position where we cannot defend that heritage.

If we believe any of the words in our Declaration of Independence and our Constitution, this mosque must not be allowed to be built at this site!

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Stuart Varney on Fox Business Channel, Interview with Peter Morici, Professor of Economics, University of Maryland

July 29, 2010; 9:54am ET


SV:   Professor thanks for coming back to us.

PM:   Nice to be with you.

SV:   Now sir, I know that you want to keep all of the Bush tax cuts in place. Right? You want to keep ‘em. Make your case for that will you?

PM:   This is a terrible time to increase taxes in the economy, the recovery is faltering, you know we talk about the rich, that includes a lot of small businesses, for example the luncheonette underneath your studio, that family, maybe two or three people working together have got a [IRS form] Schedule C, it generates income of more than two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. There’s one trillion dollars worth of taxable income like that from small businesses that this man is going to hike taxes on. And probably the problem is not taxes, it’s spending. This man [President Obama] spends too much! Let me tell you about that… the year before…

SV:   Well hold on, hold on a second, I’m sorry professor but look, over the past ten days we’ve interviewed three prominent academics, professors and lecturers from Harvard, UCLA, and Bard College. Each and every one of them has said “We must put up taxes on the rich because we’ve got to cut the deficit.” Each and every one of them has said “We must spend another trillion dollars now to get the economy going.” You’re an academic, what do you say, now give me your point on spending. They want to spend. I guess you don’t.

PM:   Well, I don’t think we should spend any more. Before the great recession in 2007, the deficit was one hundred and forty billion dollars. Our president is projecting, after the recession is over and the economy is growing at 4% per year, that the deficit will be one point four trillion dollars! What happened! The answer is: Barack Obama made a lot of spending, excluding the health care legislation, that was supposed to be stimulus, permanent. Government spending in 2012 and 2013 will be 25% of GDP according to the president’s estimates. When George Bush was president, it was 20% of GDP. He’s hiked the chunk that they want to take from you, and I don’t know what we’re getting for it. Can you see any appreciable improvement in the services your federal government provides you?

SV:   I guess their argument is, and I’ve heard this argument, that had we not spent all that money then things would be a whole lot worse. What do you make of that argument?

PM:   Well, the [idea] with stimulus spending, and what Barack Obama promised, something he’s always capable of walking away [from], is that it would be temporary. But he’s built these spending increases into the budget permanently, like for example his electric vehicle program which is going no place. The bottom line is, he’s built out the frontiers of government dramatically, and after the election’s over it’s not going to be just the rich. He cannot finance a government that is 25% larger as a share of GDP without putting terrible burdens on the middle class. You watch, this is the tip of the iceberg [not extending all the Bush Tax cuts], after this, it’s going to be a value added tax.

SV:   Okay, oh, huh, huh... I hate to leave it there…

PM:   Ah hah…

SV:   But we’d better leave it right there. Professor Peter Morici, thanks for joining us again sir, always appreciated. Thank you.

PM:   Take care, all the best.

Monday, July 26, 2010

The Missing Voice in the Debate over Taxes!

I keep hearing the debate over “extending the Bush tax cuts” (or not) framed in terms of only these two sides:
Left: "If Republicans are serious about deficit control they have to agree to let the Bush tax cuts expire for 'the wealthiest Americans.'"

Right: "In the midst of a serious recession, it would be irresponsible to let the Bush tax cuts expire, raising taxes on small businesses where most jobs come from."
My frustration is that no one is expanding the discussion beyond these narrow parameters. These two positions speak past one another, neither being responsive to the other. This is an ideal opportunity for an interviewer to guide and expand the discussion.

I certainly agree with extending the Bush tax cuts. The single most important business sector we need to cultivate for the health of the economy is startups and small businesses, especially those in the $250k to $2.5M range. This is the incubator for the innovation that has always been America’s strength.

The missing voice in this debate is a call to SHRINK THE SIZE AND SCOPE OF GOVERNMENT! This is clearly a core issue driving the Tea Party movement. Indeed, the very invocation of imagery from the original Boston Tea Party era is borne of a desire to move back in the direction of our original constitutionally limited republic. The founders never intended the vast expansion of federal government that we see today. One can only imagine the horror of our founders if they could have seen what would become of the limits to power and scope they worked so hard to craft. This is the over-arching theme that animates every Tea Party event:
“Cut Spending, Cut Taxes, and reduce the Size and Scope of government!”
There is a voting majority today that is long past the notion that “entitlement spending” is some sort of untouchable “third rail” of government spending. We are anxious to have a debate with EVERYTHING on the table. The way to frame this is to take the original constitutional limits as the lower limit, and the present state as the upper limit, and work for something somewhere between these two limits.

I cannot remember when I last heard a single interviewer expand the discussion about tax cuts to include corresponding spending cuts when the Left tries to raise the spurious bogey man of deficits; you never hear the word deficits cross their lips when the Left is voting to add $Ts in new legislation.

Cut spending... cut spending... cut spending... Are you listening inside the beltway?
CUT SPENDING!!!

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Twitter Archive

What does the left believe rich people do with their money that doesn't help the economy? #econ #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #tax

They advocate "social justice," "minimum wage," and "universal health care." Who are they? http://bit.ly/9czUIe #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #econ

Everything a wealthy person does with income creates economic expansion, compared to horded cash. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #econ #tax

The poor keep a larger % of their income in cash than the wealthy. The wealthy use banks, invest, and spend. #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #econ

RT @gscottoliver: Wait: "left think"? You know better than that! // Okay, perhaps "feel" would be a better word there.

What does the left think rich people do with their money that doesn't help the economy? #econ #hhrs #tcot #teaparty

RT @DebbieSchlussel #Christian May Get Life in US Prison 4 Self-Defense from #Muslim Mob http://is.gd/dCkNj #tcot #jcot #islam #immigration

RT @ORlibertygal Travesty! You can thank the democrat elitists who won't allow school choice! http://shar.es/mVMo0 #teaparty #hhrs #tcot

RT @Heritage The next Govt takeover? National #education standards. #edreform http://herit.ag/bth #tcot #hhrs #teaparty #econ #killUSDE #gop

And this is precisely the goal of the Fabian, revolution by slippery slope. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty

This leaves some reluctant to call the progressives socialist, because each step seems less than total capitulation. #tcot #teaparty #hhrs

The progressives are Fabian Socialists. They believe in gradual socialist change rather than revolutionary change #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #gop

Democratic socialism was not created for the elevation of individual liberty, but for it's enslavement to the group. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty

Limited and decentralized govt, free trade & mkts, maximized individual liberty, these are the conditions for liberty. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty

He explains that the left appropriated the label in the supreme, if unintended compliment. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #ClassicalLiberal #econ

On page 5 of Milton Friedman's "Capitalism and Freedom" he explains why "liberal" is the wrong label for the left. #tcot #hhrs #teaparty

RT @ORlibertygal: @Huffman2010 Go Jim! http://bit.ly/bLLJ3R #orcot #tcot #teaparty #conus #founders #econ

@tamij There is now, and ever shall be, only one "Tribble Princess" - The inimitable bright and shining @Tamij #hhrs

RT @BrendaHilliard2: If you put the fed govt in charge of the Sahara, in 5 yrs there'd be a shortage of sand." ~M. Friedman #tcot #econ #gop

RT @Luigi1492: In the spirit of Hayek, the rd to fin ruin is paved by grand govt intent w/ unintended long term consequences #econ #teaparty

RT @ORlibertygal @Theblacksphere "loved the book" http://bit.ly/ay06tT #orcot // It's on my list.

#FF @Theblacksphere @ORlibertygal @LizzieViolet @mkhammer @RedState @Lileks @exposeliberals @VictoriaTaft @hughhewittblog #tcot #teaparty

#Fauxbama "Now European leaders don't even like me." http://bit.ly/bokX2i #hhrs #teaparty #tcot

#Fauxbama "I just wanted us to be like Eur, now Eur isn't even like Eur. It's like trying to do Woodstock 3 days & finding the trash pile."

#fauxbama "I told you I would 'restore' America to its rightful place in the world, & we're more like Jimmy Carter's USA everyday" #teaparty

Keith Olberman loses ownership of his own domain name! Oh darn! Three Cheers for Tucker Carlson! http://bit.ly/alMHo4 #hhrs #tcot #teaparty

#GOP needs to run on 4 R's: Remove Dem's, Repeal their bills, Replace w/ mkt reforms, Restore #conus ltd Govt! #Nov! #tcot #teaparty #econ

#Fauxbama Disney movie title: "Honey I shrunk 'The People'!" #tcot #teaparty #gop #hhrs #conus

#Fauxbama "Oh well, those 'small businesses' only create 'small jobs' anyway. We're focused on growing BIG BUSINESS, and BIG GOVERNMENT!"

#Fauxbama: "Business thrives on uncertainty! ... or was it the other way 'round? Whichever..., but.., We're Headed in the right direction!

RT @johnboehner Thomas Sowell: "Obama succeeded only in creating uncertainty" http://bit.ly/b1VT0o #econ #business #teaparty #tcot #hhrs

Ann Coulter with some clear thinking about the Constitution and the Supreme Court. http://bit.ly/abUwEO #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #conus #scotus

Frank-n-Dodd Financial bill gives unions trojan horse into boards of all publicly traded co's. http://politi.co/blv0IW #business #econ #tcot

#Gipper: Recession is your neighbor losing his job, Depression is your job lost, Recovery is Reid/Pelosi/Obama lose their jobs! #tcot #hhrs

UKs Daniel Hannan, the best reason to allow non-citizens to run for USA president http://bit.ly/bVEZUg #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #econ

Let me get this str8, exactly which Islamic nation does Obama think needs NASA's help w/ ICBM capability? #hhrs #teaparty #tcot #nov #israel

RT @foundingfather: There is nothing so likely to produce peace as to be well prepared to meet an enemy. #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #mil

Thomas Sowell, MUST READ! #Econ #Stimulus #Inflation Velocity of money #liquidity #Gold http://t.co/UTDuAt8 #tcot #hhrs #teaparty #business

RT @redostoneage President of New Black Panther Party Admits Plan to Intimidate Voters http://bit.ly/93uODR #teaparty #hhrs #tcot #gop #nov!

Hayek et al had it exactly right, and Keynes quite wrong. Original 1932 op ed letters http://bit.ly/cbFkJK #econ #teaparty #tcot #nov! #hhrs

RT @redostoneage http://bit.ly/dpj2jR Majority of Likely Voters: 'Socialist' Accurately Describes Obama #teaparty #hhrs #tcot #econ #nov!

I do not believe there has ever been an administration more disconnected from economic reality. #econ #teaparty #business #tcot #nov! #hhrs

Rahm Emanuel: "Biz ldrs should be grateful for Obama's support of biz." !? http://bit.ly/9BeJlc #econ #teaparty #business #tcot #nov! #hhrs

FBN Video report about new 1099 tax regs for ALL PURCHASES over $600! http://bit.ly/9XsCrg #econ #teaparty #business #tcot #gop #nov! #hhrs

RT @fleckman: Prez here: Remember I sd I'm 4 small business? Yeah, I'm a liar. http://bit.ly/dphucl HT @FVHayek #tcot #p2 // Yes indeed!

New 1099 regs for purchases over $600 will be a reporting nightmare, costs will be inflationary! #econ #business #tcot #gop #nov! #hhrs

New IRS regs will require 1099 filing not only for services, but ALL PURCHASES over $600! Nightmare for SB! #business #econ #tcot #gop #irs

Full text story FBN's Elizabeth MacDonald: Deutsche Bank internal report on the Frank-n-Dodd bill: http://bit.ly/8XFNKK #econ #tcot #hhrs

This steel plant has created more "clean energy" than all the solar panels ever deployed. http://bit.ly/97ZcbU #econ #tcot #gop #teaparty

"Tell the federal govt to GO AND SIT IN A CORNER AND LEAVE THE ECONOMY ALONE!" - John Bolton on Varney & Co., FBN #tcot #teaparty #econ #gop

Very interesting video "10 ways to be your own boss" - Fred Wilson http://bit.ly/bSFCP9 #entrepreneur #unemployed #tcot #hhrs #econ #create

Video: "Deutsche Bank Rips Into the Frank-n-Dodd "Financial Reform"" [sic] http://bit.ly/ak89wi #hhrs #tcot #gop #teaparty #econ

"Tell the federal govt to GO AND SIT IN A CORNER AND LEAVE THE ECONOMY ALONE!" - John Bolton on Varney & Co., FBN #tcot #teaparty #econ #gop

Full text story FBN's Elizabeth MacDonald: Deutsche Bank internal report on the Frank-n-Dodd bill: http://bit.ly/8XFNKK #econ #tcot #hhrs

Thanks to Elizabeth MacDonald for the Deutsche Bank "Financial Reform" story: http://bit.ly/ak89wi // #hhrs #tcot #gop #teaparty #hhrs

Deutsche Bank Rips Into the Frank-n-Dodd "Financial Reform" [sic] http://bit.ly/ak89wi // A DISASTER!!! #hhrs #tcot #gop #teaparty #hhrs

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Twitter Archive

An archive of some of my recent tweets:


Video preview of Thomas Sowell's "The Housing Boom and Bust" http://bit.ly/c2aGjQ Must Read! #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #gop

Thomas Sowell demolishes several common #econ fallacies of the left. http://bit.ly/aBO8F9 Wonderful stuff! #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #gop

RT @save_america1st Thomas Sowell: http://bit.ly/9Ih6yH just read it and RT it! #teaparty #tcot #gop #hhrs // The gr8st living #econ today!

RT @levanrami: Keynes vs. Hayek: The Great Debate Continues (Commentary) http://is.gd/djucI // Excellent! #tcot #teaparty #hhrs #econ #gop

RT @GreatHairGuy MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Tuesday, November 2, 2010 - National "Take Out The Trash Day"! #tcot #hhrs #teaparty #gop #nov!

RT @dkuroda: "Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work." - Thomas A. Edison #hhrs #tcot

RT @dkuroda: "We have too many high sounding words, and too few actions that correspond with them" -Abigail Adams #in #teaparty #tcot #hhrs

@LizzieViolet Interesting discussion (first 5-10 min) contrib. of Jewish society to pre-war Vienna intellectual society http://bit.ly/duZazx

Friedrich August von Hayek: A wonderful interview, fascinating. Time very well spent. http://bit.ly/duZazx #econ #teaparty #tcot #gop #hhrs

To asses the effectiveness of an #econ system, look for unfettered price signals between producers and consumers. #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #gop

RT @FriedrichHayek: Hayek on Keynes, Britain & deflation during the British Depression of the 20s & 30s. http://hayekcenter.org/?p=3144

Americans: Federal government wastes fifty cents out of every dollar it spends. http://bit.ly/cM9s4M #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #econ #gop

"Tell the federal govt to GO AND SIT IN A CORNER AND LEAVE THE ECONOMY ALONE!" - John Bolton on Varney & Co., FBN #tcot #teaparty #econ #gop

To those who say an attack on Iran's nuke capab would be destabilizing, how would you rank it with a nuke in Tel Aviv? #tcot #israel #hhrs

Will any lefty admit that BP drilled in 5k ft because the eco-left won't let us drill on land or shallow water? #econ #tcot #teaparty #gop

Michael Steele: PLEASE STEP DOWN, this weekend, as leader of the GOP! Too many stupid mistakes! #tcot #gop #teaparty #RNC #NRSC #NRCC

What about inflation, are we seeing inflation or deflation? What's going on? http://bit.ly/aqXbiB #hhrs #tcot #teaparty #gop #econ

Does history agree that the recession would have been worse without Obama's stimulus spending? No! http://bit.ly/9TwWR2 #tcot #teaparty #gop

RT @VisedMonk: As we celebrate our freedom, please pray for Gilad Shalit's freedom; captive for 1,468 days now. #tcot #israel #christ #gop

Remarkable similarities between today and May 1930. You need to see this. http://bit.ly/dxtn5C


Financial reform in 1933 = 23 pages, in 2010 = 2300 pages. Does anyone believe lawmakers have become 100x smarter?

To those who say an attack on Iran's nuke capab would be destabilizing, how would you rank it with a nuke in Tel Aviv?

Bailouts are not medicine but cancer. We need to shrink size & scope of govt, spending, and taxes.

"The Whitehouse is like a Junior Achievement Project ... They really simply don't know what they're doing!" - Peter Morici

CBO says that the public debt will be more than 60% of GDP by year end due to fed spending.

The Frank-n-Dodd financial reform "monstrosity" is 1000's of pgs of legislated #econ uncertainty: http://bit.ly/90IRFK

We don't need more govt spending "aggregate demand" but more private sector "creative innovation" http://bit.ly/acnL3A

Ask yourself how govt spending could "create" an iPod4, an iPad, a cellphone or a Model T? http://bit.ly/acnL3A

"Conservatives divide the world in terms of good and evil while liberals do it in terms of the rich and poor." – Dennis Prager

"We get a 'do-over' when you fire all these people, so come November let's [clean house]!" Dave Ramsey

Rather than extend #unemployment: cut govt spending 50%, cut capgaintax 50%, and pass flat tax. I'd like my odds for employment.

A prescient conservative in Europe speaks out: http://bit.ly/cMSOuM - Thanks to Charles Payne.

Will any lefty admit that BP drilled in 5k ft because the eco-left won't let us drill on land or shallow water?

Saturday, July 3, 2010

What about inflation? Why are we seeing deflation?

What is really happening with the money supply? Conventional wisdom says that huge deficits lead to inflation. On the other hand, so far, we have not seen inflation, but some sign of deflation. So what's going on with the money supply?

The government is printing dollars (and borrowing) like crazy to pay for their frenzied spending spree, but we aren't seeing inflation because businesses and households are hording dollars (gasp: "Savings"? What's that?). Business is holding more cash than at anytime in my lifetime, over $1.8 trillion: http://bit.ly/b91TFE  The household savings rate is up to 4%, while it had been negative in recent years past. This would be great if it represented a permanent change in American savings psychology, but unfortunately what it seems to reflect short term uncertainty about the economy.

We could really use a long-term psychology that said saving for a rainy day is the responsible thing to do, rather than expanding public safety nets like unemployment insurance and so on. Individuals would be infinitely more responsible about providing for their own emergency needs than any government program can ever be. Unfortunately there is no reason to believe that this is what has happened.

Despite the massive printing of dollars, we're actually seeing deflation due to the currency being withheld from circulation. When individuals cannot keep up with their debts, they face debt judgements, wage garnishment, and loss of savings. In these extreme circumstances, people hold more cash as security. With less cash in circulation, prices tend to come down.Many key prices are actually in decline; gasoline, housing, cars, wages, etc.

Once business and consumers regain confidence, the great likelihood is that all of this horded currency will flush into the economy very quickly, causing a huge spike of inflation. This cycle of deflation pressure followed by an inflationary spike is quite classic and historic.

This will cause the Fed to raise interest rates to try to contract the money supply, but they will find it very difficult to control the expansion because the cash is already pre-positioned in the market. As interest rates go up, perhaps sharply, the debt service cost goes way up, and we could very easily see another bout of stagflation like we had under Carter. With rising interest rates you get another whole round of credit defaults because all this debt is still sitting out there, but now the debt service becomes MUCH more expensive and can't be afforded. Both government debt and personal debt service sucks up a great deal more income and we're right back in recession.

With it's debt service costs rising, the government debt becomes more and more difficult. There are two opposite instincts about how to deal with this on the political Left and the Right. The Left only sees tax increases, because cuts to spending represent cuts to their patronage power base. The Right knows that cuts to the size and scope of government are the only real solution.

The real question becomes, where can we find conservative politicians with the will and the rhetorical skills to champion the severe cuts to government spending and enttitlement programs that are desparately needed?

For now, investing in real estate is a real good bargain if you can qualify for a fixed 30yr mortgage at 4.5% and if you buy a bank-owned at a 30% discount. Gold is at least safe against inflation. Most dollar-denominated assets will go up in price under inflation, but they'll be declining while we're under deflation. Equities are tempting because with inflation their prices will go up, but it is hard to know how long we'll be in deflationary pressure and this severe market uncertainty.

Many entrepreneurs would love to start a business about now. Many creative people have become unemployed, and risk-taking becomes easier when you don't see many other choices, but you'd have to get your head examined to want to dive into this tax and regulation environment with a startup.

The uncertainty we keep hearing about is not misplaced. It would appear we're in for quite a wild ride.

Would the recession have been worse without the stimulus bill?

The Obama administration and the Left have repeatedly claimed that their trillion dollar stimulus spending has prevented the recession from being worse than it would have been without it.

The simple fact is, there is absolutely no evidence to support this claim, and all historical evidence would suggest the opposite.

1)  The Left points to the fact that the recession was worse in the beginning than it is now as evidence that their stimulus efforts have worked.

2)  The truth is that all recessions, even when you do nothing at all, have a cycle to them. The market tends to recover through its own feedback mechanisms, and the history of recessions is that on average, this recession and the great depression have been the slowest recoveries in all the history of recessions.

3)  History suggests that when you do nothing at all, most recessions begin to recover in twelve to eighteen months. For all Obama's claims that the recession would have been worse had we not passed his stimulus bill, history suggests to the contrary that we are either about on track or recovering more slowly than would be expected with no stimulus spending.

3)  The two longest recessions in history have both been examples where the Government took up the Keynesian mantle of being "The Spender of Last Resort." The Great Depression lasted for more than a decade, and the most optimistic estimates now suggest that this recession will last at least four or five years more before unemployment has recovered. Some now fear a second dip as happened in the 1930s, which could foretell a similar length to the great depression.

4)  Some of the shortest recoveries for severe recessions have occurred when the government did exactly the opposite of Keynesian government spending. In the 1920s and 1980s the government made sharp cutbacks in the size and scope of government, and government regulation, getting out of the way of the market to let it work more efficiently. Measured for initial severity, ultimate duration, and strength of recovery, these recessions represent two of the most successful recession recoveries in history.

There is NO evidence that Keynesian stimulus spending works, and very strong evidence that it makes matters worse.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Stuart Varney Interview with Peter Morici, July 1, 2010

Peter Morici, University of Maryland Professor of Economics:

Stuart Varney: “Are you predicting that the economy is going to fall off a cliff?”

PM: “Well, if we have a double dip, if we turn into a second recession, the economy won’t recover. The definition of a depression is a recession from which you cannot recover. The economy has natural resuscitative qualities, due to the inventory cycle, things of that nature; we’ve used that up this time around. If we take a second dip that won’t be present. What we’ve seen is the Obama administration is incapable of crafting economic policies that have permanent positive effects on the economy; its attack on the private sector from cap-in-trade, to higher marginal taxes, higher health care costs and so forth, all of these little things are adding up. What’s more, as we have discussed so many times in recent years Stuart, they are not addressing the fundamental problems; the trade deficit with China, the huge hole in demand for US Goods and services, and the bank reforms do nothing for the regional banks, those eight thousand banks don’t have cash to lend. Obama worries about Wall Street, not main street, finance not manufacturing, that’s why this could happen.

SV: Okay, now bring us up to date, and bring us up to speed on the big debate. I’m saying that the great debate is: Do we spend more and stimulate more with government money now, or do we cut back on spending and concentrate on deficit reduction now? Where do you stand in that debate?

PM: We certainly don’t spend more, I would not take back the remaining stimulus money, I would let it work itself through the system. However, I would at this time take very strong steps to address the trade deficit with China.

SV: Yeah but, but okay ...

PM: I would have a policy that …

SV: I know that’s your point …

PM: Hold on, hold on ...

SV: I know that’s your point …

PM: If you do that ...

SV: But, but …

PM: If you do that, if you do that, then you can cut spending.

SV: Okay.

PM: Because the increased demand that you’ll create that way for domestic goods and services permits you to cut spending. It permits you to lower the deficits in the United States, in Europe, if you do that.

SV: Am I right in saying that you’re looking for, overall, a loss of 150,000 jobs tomorrow morning?

PM: Yes I am. We’re essentially going to lose 200,000 census jobs, in round numbers, it’s very hard to get a fix on that even though they give us data. And so the question is: How many jobs are created net of that? Last month it was about 30,000, maybe this month it will be 50,000, that’s hardly enough to sustain this recovery.

SV: Okay. Professor Morici, it’s always a pleasure. Thanks very much for joining us again sir, appreciate it.

PM: Take care.

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

The Frank-n-Dodd financial reform "monstrosity"!

The Frank-n-Dodd financial reform "monstrosity" is thousands of pages of legislated economic uncertainty:
"If you read the bill, it looks like it's a plan, ... for plans. It gives regulators all kinds of new charges and they're going to have to figure out how to do those. It's creating all kinds of new study commissions who will have to come up with new results. So, it leaves people in business with a lot of uncertainty [asking] 'just where are we going now?'" Robert Shiller, Yale Professor of Economics, author of "Animal Spirits" interviewed by Dagen McDowell on FBN today.

Monday, June 28, 2010

A Conservative in Europe

"The budget should be balanced, the treasury should be refilled, public debt should be reduced, the arrogance of officialdom should be tempered and controlled, and the assistance to foreign lands should be curtailed, lest the republic become bankrupt, people should again learn to work instead of living on public assistance." Marcus Cicero 55BC, as reported by Charles Payne on FBN, June 28, 2010

The Sole Evil of Free Market Capitalism

The greatest & perhaps sole evil of free market capitalism is that it makes mankind so productive and wealthy that society can afford to support, and will tolerate, a class of idiot intellectuals who would destroy all that is good in society in the foolish pursuit of a nightmarish socialist utopian fantasy.

Thursday, June 24, 2010

The Foolish Focus on Aggregate Demand

© June 24, 2010 – FV Hayek & Co. LLC

Economic Foolishness:
Listening to a business news show the other day, I heard a rather shocking comment by a guest whose byline was “Senior Economist” for the channel. This guest stated, and appeared to genuinely believe, that when the government hires a worker the income tax from that worker will increase net revenues to the government!

I was stunned and incredulous to hear such a ludicrous statement, which seems to me simply ignorant of economic reality and market operation, especially coming as it did from a supposed “Senior Economist.” How is it possible that such foolishness can pass for economic wisdom?

Aggregate Demand – The Keynesian “Knob”
The trouble with many so-called economic experts today is that they have drunk the “Kool-Aid” of Keynesian theory; a principle tenet of which is that measurement and manipulation of “aggregate demand” is the key to understanding and manipulating the economy. This seems inevitably to create a myopic focus on “spending” with too little regard for the source of the funds, or understanding of the target of the spending. Their logic is roughly equivalent to the foolish consumer who tries to feel better by running up their VISA credit card balance in a frenzied “buying spree,” and when the VISA bill comes, pretends to pay off the VISA by charging it to their MasterCard.

The Market is not the Keynesian’s Personal Toy!
The other major myopia from the Keynesians is to see markets as inanimate objects that they can mold freely without unintended consequences. They look at a sector of the market with $X flowing through it and think if they impose a tax of Y% they will receive $XY in new revenue. But markets are the aggregate of rational decisions by living breathing people who react to the changing economic climate around them. With a Y% negative impact on that activity they will generally look for other alternatives, perhaps not immediately, but ultimately.

The net effect, at some level of taxation, is a crippling of the economy in three ways; first they remove some of the profits which would otherwise find their way back into the economy at nearly a 100% rate of deployment, second, they cause a reduction in the activity which they taxed with its capital diverted to a use which is not as efficient as the initial use, and third, they create an environment of uncertainty which causes all businesses and investors to hesitate to put any capital to work which they can hoard or shelter for the rainy day which seems likely in light of ever larger government budget deficits.

Money vs Capital
Not all capital is “created equal.” When the government spends money, that spending can never represent increased wealth in the economy because it must come from the economy first and then the government usually burns up 50% to 70% of it in bureaucratic waste. The “government credit card” only has three sources of money, it either takes the funds out of the economy in taxes, or by inflationary devaluation of everyone’s dollars through expansion of the printed money supply, or by soaking up bond capital which otherwise would be available to invest in the private sector. There is no government “capital” tree; they can print dollars, but not wealth. The U.S. economy is worth precisely its net productive output just like the net profits of a company. The dollar’s value is just like the value of a share of stock in a company, if you print more stock, each share of stock is worth less.

Fiat Currency
The U.S. Dollar today is not backed by gold or any other “hard currency,” it represents literally the “full faith and credit of the United States.” The value of the dollar floats in relation to the value of the total U.S. economy. As our GDP increases, a given quantity of dollars in circulation become worth a larger share of that GDP. Conversely when the GDP shrinks, with the quantity of dollars in circulation held constant, each dollar becomes worth less. Of course, the government can print these pieces of paper at any rate they choose; ink and paper are relatively cheap. Since this simple relationship exists between the value of money and the GDP, increasing the supply of money has no effect on total wealth, but only the value of each dollar. If the government prints enough dollars to insure that the supply in circulation keeps pace with the growth of the national GDP, each dollar will “hold its value.” If they print too many dollars, each dollar will decline in value.

There is a “parlor trick” here that the government can use to its benefit. When the government first spends newly printed dollars which grow the money supply, these dollars are worth what they were before the new money supply expansion. It is only after the expanded circulation reaches a new value-equilibrium that the reduction in value is felt by others in the economy. Other things may also cause a delay in the inflationary effect of an expanded money supply; if widespread uncertainty causes people to hoard dollars, or turn them into illiquid assets like gold or other hard currency, taking money out of circulation, the existing dollar value equilibrium may not immediately exhibit any effect. As the uncertainty fades, and the hoarded savings is flushed back into circulation, it will create a sudden spike of inflationary devaluation.

The potential benefit of hard currency like gold is its relative stability. The supply of gold generally grows somewhat slowly, so those participating in the market know with a degree of confidence what their currency is worth. A responsible government can achieve the same effect with fiat money (printed dollars) by maintaining the circulating supply of dollars in relative balance with the growth of the nation’s GDP, but the temptation for government is to use their printing press as a personal money tree for government bureaucrats to enhance their political power.

The “Spender of Last Resort”?
With the Keynesian single-minded focus on “aggregate demand” as the economic control of choice, when the economy is in decline, they will often say that the government must become “the spender of last resort;” with a focus on “spending” as the key to growth and recovery in an ailing economy. The director of the Fed recently said, with regard to small business hiring and growth:

"Too slow a response on the small business side is one of the reasons that job creation is not as quick as we would like it to be, and I think it is important to try to remove the barriers and impediments for small business to expand. [With regard to tax policy], I agree that we want to make tax policy as small business friendly as possible to provide the right incentives to give them the opportunities to invest and hire; beyond that though, I think for them to do that, first they need demand, they need sales so we need to keep the economy growing, and the Federal Reserve is doing its part by maintaining supportive monetary policy, and we also need to be sure they get credit.” [bold emphasis added]
Ben Bernanke – June 9, 2010
Keynesian theory places a myopic focus on “aggregate demand” as both the surest indicator of economic conditions, and the panacea “knob to turn” to fix all that ails the economy. An economy is a closed system of countless interactions between supply and demand. You can always reach into this closed system and measure how things are going at any point in the cycle, and meddling with the system at various points will indeed produce effects on the system. In a closed system, any element may be viewed as both a cause and an effect; aggregate demand is just one of these cause/effect twins in the system. But there is a fundamental problem with the classic Keynesian exclusive focus on aggregate demand.

Creative Innovation: The Engine of Wealth Creation
The great strength of a capitalist economy is the creative invention that it fosters. Command economies have always failed utterly to compete with free-market capitalism, because they are failures at creative innovation. A focus on government spending to create “aggregate demand” can only focus on demand for yesterday’s “supply.” You cannot create an iPod by stimulating aggregate demand, nor a Ford Model T, a personal computer, or a cell phone. All innovations in the market are the result of creative deployment of excess capital to create a new kind of supply that has never before existed. Innovation leads to new supply for which there was no measureable demand before that innovation hits the market. The best possible antidote to a severely depressed market would be a flood of new products and market innovations which in turn creates its own expanded aggregate demand. Expanded aggregate demand is the effect of creative innovation-driven growth in the economy, not its cause.

Attempts to “steer” the market by direct artificial injections of aggregate demand cannot stimulate innovation, but can only create temporary, artificial, ultimately unsupportable demand for existing production. This stimulation of what would otherwise be excess demand sends the market off in a direction it would not go on its own, so when this artificial stimulus is removed, the market inevitably flounders again. We have seen this quite clearly recently in both the housing and automotive markets. Any attempt to steer the economy into recovery through government spending is akin to steering a car while looking in the rear view mirror; if you focus on where you’ve been you will surely end up off in the weeds somewhere. Free market economies thrive on creative destruction; old markets are constantly being replaced by new innovations. Command economies fail because they stifle the creative innovation that can only be discovered through market freedom.

Economic Capital, or Political Capital?
With due respect to Chairman Bernanke and the Keynesians, they could not be more wrong about what the economy needs to grow. The creative innovation for a startup business cannot begin with demand and sales, it must first begin with readily available excess capital to invest. But what Chairman Bernanke calls “supportive monetary policy” soaks up vast amounts of this excess capital, and then some. The first round of “stimulus spending” is never enough, because it cannot lead to real organic growth of the economy. It always leads to call for additional rounds of even more “stimulus spending” by the government. One might think that even dullard government bureaucrats might begin to question the wisdom of their policy, except that direct government spending is a political drug which produces the heady intoxication of increased political power. The very thing the Keynesians do to stimulate the economy, direct government spending to expand aggregate demand, starves the creative innovation in an economy by soaking up excess capital, but it can be very effective at buying votes.

To Stimulate the Economy, Stimulate Creative Innovation
What is needed when the market is depressed, are injections of excess capital in the hands of private investors across the entire economy to allow new innovations to come to the market. Government simply cannot create these through direct investment, because no one knows where the next iPod or Model T will come from, until the free market discovers it. In all the recorded history of economic activity, an examination of all the innovation which came from direct government design (?) is dwarfed in comparison to the creative innovations of individual entrepreneurs who created products and services for which there was no pre-existing aggregate demand.

There are really only two ways the government can stimulate the economy today. The best approach overwhelmingly is to dramatically cut the size, scope, and cost of government. Every conservative politician in the modern era needs to be aggressively running on this platform. It is consistent with the founding principles of constitutionally limited government which made America great, and the only responsible course going forward. The second best way to stimulate the economy is large reductions in taxes across the board. This still raises deficits, like excessive spending, but unlike spending, it actually reduces bureaucratic waste and it allows the market to pick winners and losers. If accompanied by wholesale re-vamping of our entire tax structure toward a dramatically flatter, fairer, and simpler tax system, it will reduce uncertainty in the market. Ideally, all of these things should be pursued together. The reason these work is that they can place vast new capital resources in the hands of entrepreneurs in the private sector to pursue creative innovation.

Startup businesses in particular cannot rely on bank loans. A true startup business cannot qualify for small business loans, they depend on the broader private capital market for investments of personal capital and friends-and-family investments. This private capital and the small startup businesses that depend on it, look at the brutish, clumsy government spending which has taken center stage, and rightly stand in the wings until this “oafish bully of big government” will get out of the way and give the market “stage” back to the “artists of free market creative innovation.”

Monday, June 7, 2010

ABOLISH LEGALLY SANCTIONED MONOPOLIES!

ALL UNIONS should be VOLUNTARY!

We need to ABOLISH their LEGALLY SANCTIONED MONOPOLY on labor!

We do not allow businesses to have monopolies over markets because it prevents markets from delivering the greatest value. People understand that monopolies can be very harmful. The same principle should apply to labor.

Any trade or professional worker should be allowed to organize into a union if each member chooses to join voluntarily, but if someone else wants that job without joining the union, that should be their right. The goal of any company should be to offer good enough working terms that their employees do not feel the need for a union.

Every good thing a union ever did to stem genuine abusive labor practices, could still be done with voluntary unions.

If unions were voluntary, we would still have unions when and where they are truly necessary, but the vast majority of employers would be motivated to become better employers, leading to less adversarial relationships between labor and management.

The measure of good labor conditions should not be HOW MANY unionized workers there are, but HOW FEW, by their own choice.

ps: The truth is that most true monopolies can only exist because of government interference in free markets, labor union monopolies over labor are just one more example.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

A Thoroughly Incurious Press

An email has been circulated recently to the effect that the following list of things from Barack Hussein Obama's background are missing, unreleased, or unavailable. I have not personally researched these things, but am given to believe that this list is generally accurate:

  1. Occidental College records.............................unreleased
  2. Columbia College records..............................unreleased
  3. Columbia Thesis paper..................................unavailable
  4. Harvard College records.................................unreleased
  5. Selective Service Registration........................unreleased
  6. Medical records..............................................unreleased
  7. Illinois State Senate schedule........................unavailable
  8. Illinois State Senate records..........................unavailable
  9. Law practice client list...................................unreleased
  10. Record of baptism.........................................unavailable
  11. Certified Copy of original Birth certificate....unreleased
  12. Embossed, signed paper Certification of Live Birth...............................................................unreleased
  13. Anything published as editor of the Harvard Law Review..........................................................unavailable
  14. Anything written as a Professor at the University of Chicago.........................................................unavailable

I will correct this list if it is brought to my attention that any of this is incorrect, but if this list is even remotely correct, setting aside for the moment any consideration of Mr. Obama's right to privacy versus the public's right to certain public records, the more interesting questions to me are:

  1. How can it be that in a nation with a "free" and "independent" press, these things could not have been investigated, and if truly missing or unavailable, could have been almost completely ignored by all of the leading news media?
  2. What does it say about the American voters that someone with such a well-hidden past could be elected to the most powerful position in the nation, in light of such apparent media complicity to cover up for him?

Having read recently a book titled "The Debates on the Constitution," and other works about the vigorous debate just prior to the drafting of our "Declaration of Independence," I cannot help but conclude that the posterity of the men and women who sacrificed so much to give birth to this great nation, has not been well served by their descendants of late. They would surely be shocked at our incuriosity and intellectual laziness.

I am nearly left as thoroughly at a loss for words, as Mr. Obama seems to be completely at a loss for any record of his prior existence.

Is this some "Matrix"-like life-imitating-art? In which case, just exactly whose imagination is he a figment of?

ps: The essay I wrote 10/16/08, just before the election, about Mr. Obama being a cultural chameleon, still seems rather appropriate: http://bit.ly/gsOo4

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

"Do you forget to free the slaves?"

(c) May 20, 2009 - FV Hayek & Co. LLC

Reading the book "Dead Aid - Why Aid is Not Working and how there is a better way for Africa" by Dambisa Moyo; a very interesting and important work. The reader with insight will realize that there is more in what the author has written, than is found in words on the page. It may be that there are larger principles of philosophical economics here, than just the tragic circumstances the author documents in Africa, and the vitally important conclusions she draws from them. I have not finished reading the book yet, but am struck with some thoughts that I wanted to capture.

The epiphany for me as I read this fascinating work, is that many economic ills come from misunderstanding what money and wealth are. Wealth should properly be seen as an incidental by-product of the creative act. Money was created as a convenient exchange medium for wealth. If you begin looking at money and wealth as the purpose or object of the creative act, you begin to think that moving it around is "creative," that is to say that by moving it around, something has been created; that transfer payments are a reasonable facsimile or surrogate for the creative act. But it is not that humans need money, it is that they need to be engaged in creation. Wealth and money will surely be a result of such engagement, but giving someone money does not replace their human need to create. It would be as if I could bottle my sweat from a workout and give it to someone else, and in so doing I could satisfy their need for a workout, when all it would do is make them smell bad.

If you want to help someone, teach them how to work and create; giving them money enslaves them to your work and creativity. As the old addage says: "Better to teach one to fish than to give them a fish."

This is not to say that charitable giving can never be a good thing, but when giving charitably, it should be to invest in those who are doing important creative work, which might not initially - or ever - generate enough profit to be self-sustaining on its own. In essence you are then "purchasing" their creative output on your behalf. You are hiring them to do service for you. In this sense, it is not truly "charity" but a free market exchange of value just like any other. The best "giving" always makes one feel richer in the bargain, but the goal must not be merely to feel good.

Understand that to some degree you are enslaving that worker by purchasing their work, and that it is always better to find a way to help that indentured servant free himself from his servitude if possible. You will always get the greatest "return" when you can free that slave to create productivity on his own, independent of your largesse.

Too often, charitable givers are so busy "feeling good" that they forget to "free the slaves."

Thursday, May 14, 2009

"Culture Chameleon"
The Boy George Theme Song for Barack Obama
© 10/16/08

A chameleon is a remarkable reptile that can change its colors to blend in and appear at home in front of any surroundings. The brilliance of the Barack Obama campaign is based upon three principles, eloquent speech, youthful good looks, and an ability to be a political chameleon in every situation.

Unfortunately, John McCain has failed to fully connect the dots to close the deal that explains who his opponent is.

Why do the associations with Ayers, Wright, and others matter? McCain managed to raise the issue of Ayers and Acorn in last night’s debate, but he failed to explain why these associations matter. The informed, decided voters get it, but the undecided are still left wondering what the point is. The Obama campaign has succeeded in painting this as meaningless and pointless “looking back” when we have urgent issues that require looking forward.

Why does voting “present” more than “yes” or “no” matter?

Why does Obama try to minimize his associations with controversial figures from his past and with ACORN?

The answer is that Obama is a very smart leftist who realizes that America does not elect leftist politicians. If he wants to be elected, he recognizes that he must be a chameleon. Obama has made a studied effort to create a background that cannot easily be nailed down to reflect his core beliefs. This allows him to claim all kinds of populist positions to garner votes from the great middle of the American electorate who largely make their voting decisions based on mainstream media “sound bites.”

The McCain/Palin campaign has failed to explain that the reason Obama’s associations with Wright and Ayers and other radical leftists matters is that it is a true reflection of Obama’s core beliefs before he began to run for the presidency as a chameleon who can change color every time he speaks in front of a different audience. McCain has shied away from calling his opponent a radical. It is a tough label to make stick to a candidate who has left very little trail to follow, but this is precisely the point, the only point, to his past associations. It is not a matter of his “judgement,” as if these associations were incidental or accidental. The friendly mainstream media persists in dismissing these associations, portraying the issue as unfair character assasination; calling it "guilt by association." The fact is that one's long time associations do matter, they are a reflection of the most important choices an individual can make. In Obama's case, they are isolated cases of poor judgement, but persistent repeated evidence of his core beliefs, and the dishonesty of his present campaign to appear to be a purple candidate.

If McCain and Palin cannot nail down the fluorescent-blue leftist Obama in front of a purple American electorate, they will lose the election to the most radical leftist the American voters have ever voted for. America will probably face control by a radical leftist in the White House, a filibuster-proof left-leaning Congress, a leftist mainstream media, two or three new left-leaning Supreme Court nominees – with no viable confirmation challenge, and thousands of new leftist bureaucrats in Washington (about 7,000 in the executive staff alone).

McCain and Palin must explain why Obama’s past associations matter. Presently, the electorate feels like this is just so much attempt to distract and deflect from the current bad economic news; never mind that the financial news should indict the very democrats who were paid off to protect Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and should be advantage McCain and other Republicans who tried to reign in these excesses but were blocked by the Democrats that are presently controlling the investigation into what happened.

Can truth emerge from all of this? It does not appear very likely in the near term, but history has an incisive way of eventually cutting through the haze.

But our near term future desperately hangs in the balance, on the shoulders of McCain and Palin’s rhetorical skills, against the skillful rhetoric of a well-funded political chameleon.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

“When the Patient is Dying, First Stop the Bleeding.”
© December 6, 2008

In times of severe national economic crisis it is not unreasonable for the government to provide emergency “stimulus” to the economy, but poor understanding of economic fundamentals can lead to foolish “stimulus” plans that fail to stimulate, and must certainly have unintended negative consequences.

It has become popular lately, especially among politicians on the left, to call for the Congress to pass a “Stimulus Package” of spending on “infrastructure projects;” government spending on roads, bridges, and other projects. Without a doubt, this spending does create some jobs for some industries that have been hurt by the economic recession. The theory is that these are projects from which the whole public derives some benefit, and the positive effects on these narrowly targeted industries will have some stimulative trickle-down effects on other industries. The construction worker buys a new pair of boots, a fast-food burger for lunch, or maybe even a new truck, all good things. The question we must ask as wise students of basic economics, is: What does a rigorous “cost / benefit” analysis say about this plan, and is there any better plan?

The most immediate benefit goes to the contractors and suppliers who build these projects, but these are just a few of the millions of participants in the economy. Selfishly, it immediately occurs to me that I do not build roads or bridges, or produce any of the raw materials that go into these projects. True, I do drive on roads and bridges. I spent an hour or two on roads, and drove across a bridge or two just today, but in the last month as I have contemplated how the current economic downturn might affect my family, I do not honestly remember asking myself, trembling, “What if the government does not build a new road or bridge for me to drive on?” My memory is not what it once was, but I just cannot remember any urgency attached to such a thought. Now that the left has recommended this “urgently needed stimulus plan,” forcing me to contemplate how it might affect me in the coming weeks and months as these new infrastructure projects get started, I suppose in the coming months I might have a new opportunity to wave at a friendly construction project flagger, after a brief delay on my way to work. And in six months or a year or two, maybe I will get to drive on a shiny smooth new road or bridge… Hummm… I guess that would be nice, sort of. But, honestly, it just does not give me shivers of enthusiasm for the wonderful help it will be as I try to pay my bills, and worry if I might be laid off from my job. As an “urgently needed” miracle cure for our current economic woes, it leaves me, underwhelmed.

The first problem with this “stimulus” policy then, is that it singles out a few categories of workers and industries to offer stimulus which of course they will undoubtedly appreciate, but it fails to provide meaningful immediate help to the thousands of other industries and millions of other workers who are also experiencing a very difficult economy. Not that smooth asphalt and friendly flaggers aren’t nice, but they seem entirely insufficient to the economic challenges facing us.

To understand the larger problem with this government spending “stimulus” policy, requires a bit of clear economic thinking. Any time the government gives money to one group, that money must have been taken from another group. It may come as a shock to some, but the simple truth is that, THE GOVERNMENT HAS NO MONEY OF ITS OWN! If the government would give me a dollar of services, it must first take a dollar from you to pay for it, but like any “service provider,” government services include very large “overhead” expenses. In order to spend a dollar on someone the government wants to help, they have to take about a dollar and a half, or more, from someone else. Even if you have stimulated one small segment of the economy by a dollar, the vast bulk of the rest of the economy has not been “stimulated” by a dollar, but rather “starved” by that same dollar, plus a half a dollar or more of unproductive government overhead. It must surely be uncontroversial that government overhead is not in and of itself “productive;” it creates nothing to add to the gross domestic product of the nation, it is at best a transfer of value with some loss.

To illustrate the point, imagine that a patient comes to the hospital emergency room having lost so much blood that he needs a transfusion. If the doctor inserts a transfusion needle in one arm to deliver fresh blood, and then connects the other end of the transfusion tube to a needle in the other arm of the same dying patient, we would think he was quite foolish. Clearly this is not going to help. But if the doctor then cut a small hole in the middle of the tube so that a large portion of the patient’s own blood leaked out, we would be justified in concluding that the “doctor” was not just foolish, but was contributing to the imminent death of the patient.

On the other hand, it is not unreasonable for the government to want to help stimulate the economy, and there are useful things that government can do. If the government is concerned about rising rates of unemployment, and limited business capital, the answer is to let businesses keep more of their own money. The capital gains tax on business in this country is 35%, one of the highest rates among all developed countries. The business income tax rates are 15% to 35%, the higher of these rates again being among the highest in the world. If the government really wants to stimulate the economy, why not reduce the top business tax rates to 10% immediately, tomorrow, and reduce tax rates on small businesses to zero to stimulate the creation of new businesses. Congress could pass that bill, the President could sign it, and it would begin to have an effect almost as soon as the ink had dried. All businesses, in all industries, could immediately begin planning based on the knowledge that they would be able to keep as much as 25% more right from the bottom-line profits of their company and from every capital gains transaction. If they were worried about needing to lay off workers, they could immediately announce that it would not be necessary. If they had put off growth plans due to the slowing economy, they could immediately turn those decisions around. Many businesses who had been concerned about an inability to borrow the liquidity needed to run their business, could fund their business immediately from a 25% increase in their own net cash flow. Better yet, with a business tax cut, there is no “overhead” loss to the overall economy. One hundred percent of the benefit of the tax cut would immediately be injected into every industry. Every worker in the nation would immediately be more secure. At these rates, the USA would have one of the lowest business tax rates of all developed countries. Multi-national companies making choices about where to expand their operations, would be far more inclined to do so within the USA instead of going offshore. Industries involved in global trade would suddenly be as much as 25% more profitable relative to their global competition. Small businesses could get started or continue to grow much more easily.

Can anyone fail to recognize this basic truth of fundamental economics? The largest experiment in the history of government “stimulus” spending on “infrastructure” was FDR’s “New Deal,” which utterly failed to stimulate the economy. A decade after the 1929 crash, the economy still had very large double digit unemployment and was still experiencing the longest and deepest economic downturn in the history of American capitalism. The great depression was not “cured” until after World War II had changed the entire global economic landscape.

To return to our medical analogy, at 35% tax rates, the patient – our ailing economy – has been receiving the economic equivalent of the medieval medical treatment once known as phlebotomy, blood-letting, that was once thought to drain sickness from the body. Medical science long ago learned that blood-letting only weakened the patient and made recovery much slower and more difficult. It is basic first-aid training that the first thing to do with an injured patient is to stop the bleeding. Our politicians, especially those on the left side of the aisle, should learn this same lesson, from medicine, and economic history: In the midst of a serious recession, if businesses are struggling and unemployment is rising, the right treatment is to stop the bleeding.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

“Third-World” Economics Lessons for the “First-World”
(c) 2006 - FVHayek & Co. LLC

The PBS video production of “Commanding Heights,” adapted from the book by the same name (Yergin, 2002) is fascinating in its breadth and scope. It follows the thread of economic thought throughout the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in a way that provides an invaluable foundation of understanding. It is modern history punctuated with the meaning of economic events. This book and video provide context and meaning for the contributions of towering figures like Friedrich Hayek, and John Maynard Keynes, and for many lesser known, yet significant figures. With all of this, it was Hernando DeSoto’s “The Mystery of Capital,” introduced to me through this video, which has been most striking to me. (DeSoto, 2000) This book led me full circle back to the conservative economics of “The Road to Serfdom,” (Hayek, 1944) “Free to Choose,” (Friedman, 1980) and “Basic Economics.” (Sowell, 2004)

DeSoto’s research seeks to understand why the desperately poor of third-world and formerly communist countries often struggle to reap the benefits of capitalism. His basic thesis was so fascinating that I was compelled to rewind the segment and replay it numerous times, hanging on each word. What was compelling to me about DeSoto’s work was that he may have found the key to empowering the poor, not in yet another aid program, but in streamlining the legal property mechanisms by which the wealth and power they already possess could be made real. As one who believes in entrepreneurial capitalism, and its ability to free the divine spirit of the individual, this was a revelation for me. As I came to understand his argument for turning the dead-capital in the extra-legal property systems of the third-world into the productive capital of a functioning legal property representation system, the second epiphany for me was the implication that this research has for the “poor and disenfranchised,” the so-called “have-nots” of the first-world. But before looking at that, it is necessary to understand what DeSoto’s team has discovered.

The foundation of Hernando DeSoto’s work is the distinction between the concept of “capital,” and the systems of “money” and “property” by which we represent and exchange capital. He points out that these systems have evolved in the “first-world,” first in Europe and then in the United States, over centuries, in a not altogether deliberate, nor easily decipherable process. He and his team have scoured historic archives to trace the evolution of “extra-legal” property systems into the familiar systems we know today. These extra-legal systems are the means by which property was controlled, transferred, and protected before properly functioning legal systems of property and money were developed. He has researched the functioning, and dysfunctions, of the legal and extra-legal property systems of the newly formed United States, of its westward expansion, of the California “gold-rush,” and of their parallels with the current state of emerging market economies around the world. These systems have become so much a part of our daily existence that we no longer appreciate the implications of operating without these systems, as many newly capitalist economies today still must. The significance of DeSoto’s work cannot be fully appreciated until he explains that even the “poor” of developing economies have vast resources of potential capital which is rendered “dead-capital” by their extra-legal status.

“Even in the poorest countries, the poor save. The value of savings among the poor is, in fact, immense – forty times all the foreign aid received throughout the world since 1945. In Egypt, for instance, the wealth that the poor have accumulated is worth fifty-five times as much as the sum of all direct foreign investment ever recorded there, including the Suez Canal and the Aswan Dam. In Haiti, the poorest nation in Latin America, the total assets of the poor are more than one hundred fifty times greater than all the foreign investment received since Haiti’s independence from France in 1804. If the United States were to hike its foreign-aid budget to the level recommended by the United Nations – 0.7 percent of national income – it would take the richest country on earth more than 150 years to transfer to the world’s poor resources equal to those they already possess.” (DeSoto, 2004, p. 5)
This is a good place to make an important relevant point about charitable giving. The United States – in fact – donates a good deal more aid to other countries, as a function of GDP, than any other country in the world; between government and private aid, totaling about 0.5 percent. It seems noteworthy, and relevant to this discussion, that the U. N., other countries – and even DeSoto it would seem – routinely overlook the fact that the U.S. is indeed more charitable than any other country, because they routinely ignore private giving, an oversight which is understandable when you realize that Europe and indeed most other developed countries by comparison give almost nothing to private charities. Their focus is totally on the flow of capital from government to individuals, rather than the creation of capital by individuals. (Brooks, 2006, pp.115-121) The other very interesting thing is that in the U.S., the individualist “right-wing conservatives,” the so-called “neo-cons” are far more charitable than the collectivist “left.” Arthur C. Brooks’ research data shows that the two traits most correlated with charitable giving are regular church attendance, and a distaste for government wealth re-distribution. Those who are associated with these traits are twice as likely to be charitable as those who are not, and will donate 100 times more money to charity, and 50 times more money to explicitly non-religious charitable causes. (Brooks, 2006, pp. 10-12) In short, those who say they care about the poor and who favor government control and wealth re-distribution (the political left), do very little individually to help the poor, and those who are opposed to government wealth re-distributions, give far more individually to charity. The point is that perhaps the “left” should listen to “conservatives” when they say that the way to help the poor is to remove obstacles from the market wealth creation systems, it is apparently not true that conservatives say these things just because they are greedy and selfish, as those on the “left” routinely charge. Now DeSoto has confirmed very much the same thing, the way to help the poor is to get the government out of the way, and implement simple, functional, legal property systems. Hayek may have best described the virtue of the individualist’s values in his seminal work “The Road to Serfdom” (which in the interest of brevity I do not insert here, but have included as an appendix). (Hayek, 1944, pp. 65-67)

Returning to DeSoto’s research of the poor, one is tempted to ask: “If the poor have so much capital, why are they ‘poor’?” DeSoto goes on:

“But they hold these resources in defective forms: houses built on land whose ownership rights are not adequately recorded, unincorporated businesses with undefined liability, industries located where financiers and investors cannot see them. Because the rights to these possessions are not adequately documented, these assets cannot readily be turned into capital, cannot be traded outside of narrow local circles where people know and trust each other, cannot be used as collateral for a loan, and cannot be used as a share against an investment.” (DeSoto, 2000, pp. 5-6)

It turns out that this is just the beginning of the story. It is the legal system of representation that turns property into capital, but in the process this capital accomplishes many other things. Utility providers that supply electricity, natural gas, heating oil, water and sewer service, telephone service, trash collection and other things are willing to connect their services to a particular piece of property and trust that the owner will pay the bill, precisely because there is a formal legal system of record through which they have recourse if the owner fails to pay for these services; indeed, because there is – legally – an owner. The ready availability of these services, in turn, increases the useful value of the property they connect to. Owners of property which is properly represented in legal systems are compelled to abide by the legal agreements they enter into, because they have a stake in the legal system, and because their property is at risk of lien and lawsuit if they do not. These underpinnings are so interwoven in every facet of our society that we can scarcely imagine the far-reaching ramifications absent such a system.

It is not that there are no governments and legal systems in third-world countries, it is rather that the systems there are so excessively bureaucratic, dysfunctional, and corrupt as to be unusable by any but an elite few; those that DeSoto describes as existing inside the “bell jar” of privilege. Hernando DeSoto and his research team set out to understand just how dysfunctional these legal systems are for those outside the bell jar:

“To get an idea of just how difficult the migrant’s life was, my research team and I opened a small garment workshop on the outskirts of Lima, Peru. Our goal was to create a new and perfectly legal business. The team then began filling out the forms, standing in the lines, and making the bus trips into central Lima to get all the certifications required to operate, according to the letter of the law, a small business in Peru. They spent six hours a day at it and finally registered the business – 280 days later. Although the garment workshop was geared to operating with only one worker, the cost of legal registration was $1,231 – thirty-one times the monthly minimum wage. To obtain legal authorization to build a house on state-owned land took six years and eleven months, requiring 207 administrative steps in fifty-two government offices … To obtain a legal title for that piece of land took 728 steps. We also found that a private bus, jitney, or taxi driver who wanted to obtain official recognition of his route faced twenty-six months of red tape.” (DeSoto, 2000, pp. 18-20)

DeSoto documents comparable circumstances in the Philpines, Haiti, Egypt and elsewhere:

“In every country we investigated, we found it is very nearly as difficult to stay legal as it is to get legal. Inevitably migrants do not so much break the law as the law breaks them – and they opt out of the system. In 1976, two-thirds of those who worked in Venezuela were employed in legally established enterprises; today the proportion is less than half. Thirty years ago, more than two-thirds of the new housing erected in Brazil was intended for rent. Today, only about 3 percent of new construction is officially listed as rental housing. To where did that market vanish? To the extra-legal areas of Brazilian cities called favelas, which operate outside the highly regulated formal economy and function according to supply and demand. There are no rent controls in the favelas; rents are paid in U.S. dollars, and renters who do not pay are rapidly evacuated.” (DeSoto, 2000, p. 21)
Niryana Murthy – the founder and CEO of InfoSys in India, confirms DeSoto’s research, and has seen the difference that reforms can make:

“…prior to reform in India [it] required two years and fifty trips from Bangalore to Dehli to get permission to import a computer worth $1500. Things are different now: ‘Ever since 1991, there has not been a single instance when I went to Dehli for any license for any business of InfoSys. Today I can import a computer worth millions of dollars’ without having to see a single bureaucrat or apply for any license. The results have been extraordinary: India’s software exports have been growing at a 50 percent rate. … ‘The lesson to be learned there is the less the regulation, the further the government is away from business, the better it is for business.’” (Yergin, 2002, p. 228)
Murthy, once sympathetic to socialism, also said in the PBS video:

“If you want to eradicate poverty, you don’t do it by re-distributing existing wealth, you have to create new wealth.” (Yergin, 2002, DVD)
What makes DeSoto’s thesis doubly fascinating, is the parallels to be found in the first-world. Conservatives have long complained of the economic drag created in this country from excessive government regulation and bureaucracy. Beginning with Friedrich Hayek, and continuing with Milton Friedman, Thomas Sowell, and others, conservatives have long said that the best way to make everyone better off economically is to remove impediments to free market activity. Even Deng Xiaoping of China, who opened China to market reforms, said that he had

“... two choices: to distribute wealth or distribute poverty.” (Yergin, 2002, p. 410)
The socio-political debate in developed countries now often devolves to the rhetoric of “the widening gap between the rich and poor,” or even the more highly-charged language of the “haves and have-nots.” It should first be said that even the “poor” in the U.S. are dramatically better off than what would be considered “poor” in third-world countries. Nevertheless, if the fact is that there is a widening gap between the rich and poor in the U.S., it is because the middle and upper classes are creating so much new wealth, not because the poor in the U.S. are getting poorer. The economic truth is that the success of those creating new wealth uplifts even those who are not as successful, but DeSoto’s research may show the way to improving the opportunity for the poor to benefit.

I believe the impediments to market activity that exist: excessive government bureaucracy, excessive taxation, and so on, are felt more acutely, and create more real obstacle to upward mobility if you are poor. This is clearly what DeSoto has found in the third-world, and I see no reason why that should not be the case in the first-world. These bureaucratic drags on the economy in the U.S. are often the result of well-intentioned efforts to help the poor which inevitably hurt more than they help. As Hayek, Friedman, and Sowell repeatedly point out, the left typically prefers to transfer wealth from those at the top to those at the bottom through taxation and large bureaucratic entitlement programs, and the right prefers to increase the opportunity for all classes to participate in the wealth creation potential of capitalism by removing these government obstacles. We have long realized that one problem with the plan of the left is that to the degree that you increase transfer payments from wealth creators, it tends to decrease incentives and put the brakes on wealth creation. What is fascinating about the research of Hernando DeSoto, is that if his research shows the way for the poor of the third-world to become successful capitalists and raise themselves out of poverty, surely the much less “poor” of the first-world can be no less empowered. Contrary to this view is that of the socialist “wealth redistributionists,” which strikes me as yet another example of “The soft bigotry of low expectations;” (Bush, 2004) the belief that the poor are incapable of helping themselves, leaving them increasingly dependent on social welfare programs.

While we may not lack the legal property systems to the degree that developing economies do, still there must be lessons here worth learning. As any would-be entrepreneur in the U.S. knows too well, our legal systems are not without impediments. These systems are not such a challenge to a wealthy entrepreneur with a staff of lawyers and accountants, but lowest cost lawyer’s fees might run $250 an hour. A simple product patent costs about $5,000 to $10,000 with legal and filing fees. In my personal experience, the City of Hillsboro, Washington County, Oregon, a small business can be charged $27,000 just to move across the street, ostensibly an assessment for traffic impact fees, even when there is in fact no reasonable impact at all. The U.S. Federal code, the IRS statutes, and the state and local codes, are so complex that no entrepreneur can know the tiniest fraction of the laws he must obey. A would-be entrepreneur of modest means has a tough job just getting started. If we are really serious about benefiting from more surplus value in the economy, a very large portion of the accounting and legal fees paid by all businesses are consumed accommodating a massively bloated tax code, and an entire industry created to serve it; costs which could be almost entirely recovered by replacing the IRS with a greatly simplified tax code.

The genius of DeSoto’s thesis is that our property becomes capital and we are made wealthy by it because we have made ourselves accountable to our legal system, but that this only works for those to whom this legal system is practically accessible. As our legal and government systems become bloated and dysfunctional, the first to be disenfranchised are the poorest among us. If we want to allow the poor to better participate in the vast wealth creating potential of our economy, we should simplify our bureaucracy and legal codes. When conservatives say, as Ronald Reagan, famously, that we need to “get the government off our backs,” or we need to reduce taxes, it is not because conservatives are greedy or stingy and do not want to help the poor, Arthur Brooks has established the truth of who is charitable and who is not. Conservatives and Christians should know that capitalism, unleashed, provides the greatest opportunity for all people to prosper, and embodies the Biblical principles of sowing and reaping.
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Brooks, Arthur C. (2006). Who really cares – America’s charity divide, who gives, who doesn’t, and why it matters. New York, N.Y.: Basic Books.

Bush, George W. (September 2, 2004). President Bush's Acceptance Speech to the Republican National Convention. Retrieved December 12, 2006, from http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A57466-2004Sep2.html

DeSoto, Hernando. (2000). The mystery of capital – Why capitalism triumphs in the west and fails everywhere else. New York, N. Y.: Basic Books.

Friedman, Milton and Friedman, Rose. (1980). Free to choose – A personal statement. New York, N. Y.: Harcourt.

Hayek, F. A. (1944). The road to serfdom. Chicago, Ill.: University of Chicago Press.

Sowell, Thomas. (2004). Basic economics – A citizen’s guide to the economy. New York, N. Y.: Basic Books.

Yergin, Daniel, and Stanislaw, Joseph. (2002). The Commanding Heights – The battle for the world economy. New York, N.Y.: Touchstone.

Yergin, Daniel and Cran, William (Writers). (2002). The Commanding Heights – The battle for the world economy. [Television Series Episode, DVD]. Yergin, Daniel and Thompson, Sue Lena (Executive Producer), Heights Production. Sullivan, Michael (Executive Producer) WGBH. Boston: WGBH.
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Appendix:

“Not only do we not possess … an all-inclusive scale of values: it would be impossible for any mind to comprehend the infinite variety of different needs of different people which compete for the available resources and to attach a definite weight to each. For our problem it is of minor importance whether the ends of which any person cares comprehend only his own individual needs, or whether they include the needs of his closer or even those of his more distant fellows – that is, whether he is egoistic or altruistic in the ordinary senses of these words. The point which is so important is the basic fact that it is impossible for any man to survey more than a limited field, to be aware of the urgency of more than a limited number of needs. Whether his interests center round his own physical needs, or whether he takes a warm interest in the welfare of every human being he knows, the ends about which he can be concerned will always be only an infinitesimal fraction of the needs of all men.

This is the fundamental fact on which the whole philosophy of individualism is based. It does not assume, as is often asserted, that man is eqoistic or selfish or
ought to be. It merely starts from the indisputable fact that the limits of our powers of imagination make it impossible to include in our scale of values more than a sector of the needs of the whole society, and that, since, strictly speaking, scales of value can exist only in individual minds, nothing but partial scales of values exist – scales which are inevitably different and often inconsistent with each other. From this the individualist concludes that the individuals should be allowed, within defined limits, to follow their own values and preferences rather than somebody else’s; that within these spheres the individual’s system of ends should be supreme and not subject to any dictation by others. It is this recognition of the individual as the ultimate judge of his ends, the belief that as far as possible his own views ought to govern his actions, that forms the essence of the individualist position.

This view does not, of course, exclude the recognition of social ends, or rather of a
coincidence of individual ends which makes it advisable for men to combine for their pursuits. But it limits such common action to the instances where individual views coincide; what are called “social ends” are for it merely identical ends of many individuals – or ends to the achievement of which individuals are willing to contribute in return for the assistance they receive in the satisfaction of their own desires.” (Hayek, 1944, pp. 65-67)